Belgium establishes a capacity market system to offset nuclear phase-out

The Belgian government has agreed to subsidize new electricity capacity to offset the country's nuclear phase-out in 2025. A capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) has been approved and is set to replace the strategic reserve program, which was implemented since the winter 2014-2015. A two-tier auction system should be implemented by 2021, to give enough time to project developers to build new gas-fired power plants (based on an average 4-year construction length) before the nuclear phase out of 2025. Both existing and new power plants will be able to participate in the scheme and no technology is excluded except nuclear power. According to the government, foreign capacity may also participate but under well-defined conditions.

The first auction should be organized in 2021. Besides, the government will also organize yearly auctions to adjust fluctuating needs for capacity. This scheme will enable the government to subsidize capacity in a bid to guarantee security of supply. By 2025, the scheme is estimated to cost Belgian consumers an annual €345m. According to a study unveiled by the domestic grid operator Elia, 3.6 GW of new thermal capacity will be needed to offset the closure of the country’s nuclear plants.

More energy news: https://goo.gl/JX6nho

AEMO expects Australia to phase out coal power in the next 20 years

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has unveiled the new Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity Market, which forecasts the likely changes that will be occurring over the next 20 years across the domestic power market. Despite the anticipated electrification of the transport sector over the next 20 years, electricity grid demand will flatten, due to the growth of solar rooftop PV installations and energy storage coupled with energy efficiency efforts.

Existing coal-fired power plants that generate around 70 TWh/year - one third of the NEM's demand - will continue operating until the end of their operational life (by 2040 at the latest) as it would be uneconomical to retire them before the end of their operational lifespan. Replacing them later on with renewables - whose costs are falling -, gas-fired capacity, distributed generation capacity and energy storage systems (including pumped-storage) would be more cost efficient.

The domestic power grid will shift to a more decentralised system model: 28 GW of solar, 10.5 GW of wind, 17 GW of storage and 500 MW of flexible gas-fired generation will be set up along with a significant upgrade of the domestic power transmission system.

More energy news: https://goo.gl/JX6nho
For more detailed analysis and energy data on Australia and over 100 countries worldwide, try our Global Energy Research service: https://goo.gl/ViGPaJ

Gazprom gas production up by 8.5% in 1st semester 2018 (Russia)

According to the state-run company Gazprom, exports of Russian gas to non-CIS (Community of Independent States) countries went up by 5.8% between January and June 2018 to reach 108.9 bcm. The largest hikes were reported in Germany (+12.2% or + 3.5 bcm), Austria (+52.3% or + 2.1 bcm), the Netherlands (+61.9% or +1.4 bcm), France (+12.5% or 0.8 bcm), Croatia (+45%, +0.6 bcm) and Poland (+6.7%).

Meanwhile, Gazprom's gas production increased by 8.5% over the time period and averaged 270.1 bcm. Its gas sales on the Russian domestic market also went up by 5.3% (7 bcm) since the beginning of the year. The company's total gas output in 2017 averages 471 bcm, which is 12.4% more than in 2016. For the end of 2018, Gazprom hopes to reach 476 bcm (+1%) but the forecast could still be adjusted and reviewed.

More energy news : https://goo.gl/JX6nho

Enerdata's free online applications: EnerOutlook and Yearbook

EnerOutlook

EnerOutlook fossil fuel prices up to 2040

EnerOutlook is a free online interactive data software which enables you to browse data through intuitive maps and graphs, for a visual analysis of the expected long-term trends in the energy industry.

These can be viewed globally and by world region. The interface provides robust forecasts on energy supply and demand as well as information on fossil fuel prices, renewable energies and CO2 emissions.

This application is an excerpt of the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 

Global Energy Statistical Yearbook interactive map

The Global Energy Statistical Yearbook is Enerdata's free online application that displays global energy statistics through an interactive interface with maps and graphs. Browse the latest data (last update: 2018) by region, energy and year; compare and benchmark countries; and download data series to integrate to your model. 

The Yearbook provides statistics on : 

• production, consumption and trade of oil, gas, coal, power and renewables;
• CO2 emissions from fuel combustion;
• covering 60 countries and regions throughout the world;
• including updated data until 2017.

Rise in global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2017

29 Jan

The rebound in Chinese coal consumption, after a 3-year drop, strongly drove this trend.

Enerdata estimates a +2% growth of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2017. Based on monthly data gathered for key countries, this results shows a significant change in the trend, after a 3-year period of stability. The gap with a 2° scenario increases…

Hereunder are the key learnings of this analysis.

The CO2 emissions growth in 2017 can be attributed to higher coal consumption. Global coal consumption is estimated to have increased noticeably in 2017 due to a rebound in China (+3.7%), steady growth in India (nearly +4%) and stabilization in the United States (+1%) after a 3-year decline (-20% between 2013 and 2016).

Read more

Exclusive Gas Foresight Report

Inside a flat gas demand in Europe, the contribution of the power sector will keep growing

In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency announced an upcoming golden age for natural gas with the strong growth of gas demand expected in the coming years, especially in Asia and with the development of shale gas resources.
But the picture varies by region; in Europe, while gas consumption increased over the last 20 years, it has been stagnating since 2005, limited by a sluggish economic growth and stringent regulations promoting energy efficiency. We have seen during the last 5 years a real re-definition of sectoral demand for gas, with growing inputs in the power sector. Between 2000 and 2011, 100 GW of gas-fired capacities were installed in Europe; this trend will certainly continue with the expected commissioning of 50 GW of additional gas-fired plants by 2020 in our central scenario (Balance). However, the current high competitiveness of gas plants is more and more under threat. A weakening of CO₂ policies in Europe would strengthen the position of coal as a fuel of choice in the power sector. In the same time, a strong commitment to a climate target would make necessary the development of very stringent energy efficiency policies and very strong CO₂ taxation that would therefore lower gas demand over the long-term.

Interested in our exclusive Gas Forecast Report report?

As gas promises to gain ground in Europe in the next couple of decades, our newly published report analyses the current environment as well as emerging issues and uncertainties about the pace at which this will happen, with focus on:

• Expected growth of gas demand in the power sector, compared to a flat trend in other sectors
• Booming LNG infrastructures easing access to natural gas at a competitive price and shifting the origin of gas imports
• Important opportunities for shale gas although geologically uncertain and subject to very contrasted legislations between member states

Our insightful analysis is based on outputs from the globally recognised POLES model.

> Read More

Turkey - Natural Gas

Discover the latest developments in the Turkey Energy Market, with focus on natural gas. 



Turkey expected the natural gas demand to rise to 85 bcm in 2015, and planned to greatly develop the electricity production capacity from gas. To supply that demand, the country signed many gas supply contracts. However, the 2001 economic crisis and the postponement of the price deregulation led to a much lower demand, and the country found itself in a situation of surplus supply (the signed contracts were ¼ higher than the country's demand). However, Turkey took advantage of that situation and of its geographical position as a strategic player for the supply of gas to Europe, and in recent years its domestic consumption has increased sufficiently for it to seek new supply contracts.

There are three contracts signed with Russia. Under a first contract, 6 bcm/year was to be supplied between 1987 and the end of 2012, although in mid-2011 Botas gave Gazprom notice that it was ending the contract due to pricing disagreements. Under a second contract, signed in 1999, 8 bcm/year will be supplied until 2021. A third contract, signed with the Blue Stream gas pipeline, provides for the supply of 16 bcm/year between 2009 and 2028 (initial supply of 2 bcm/year in 2003, gradually increased to the plateau volume).

Algeria supplies Turkey under a long-term contract of 4 bcm/year over a 20-year period that will be extended of 10 years to 2024; a first contract signed in 1988 for the supply of 2 bcm/year from 1994 was extended in 1995 for the delivery of an additional 2 bcm/year.

Iran supplies Turkey within a contract for total amount of 228 bcm over 23 years starting in January 2003, following the commissioning of the 325 km-long gas pipeline connecting Iran to Ankara.

Nigeria supplies Turkey within one contract, signed in 1995, for a supply of 1.2 bcm/year from 1999 over 22 years.

Since the completion of a gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan (field of Shah Deniz) to Turkey via Georgia (Baku-Tbilissi-Erzurum) in April 2007, Azerbaijan has grown into a significant exporter to Turkey. The pipe's initial capacity was 2.2 bcm/year, and has reach 6 bcm/year up to now.

The gas pipeline connecting Greece to Turkey, which is part of the ITGI project, was commissioned in December 2007. The strategic purpose of this 296 km-long pipeline is to diversify the EU's supply sources by transporting gas from Caucasus countries to Europe. It has a capacity of 11.5 bcm/year. This gas pipeline cost Turkey approximately €250m and Greece between €30m and €40m. There are plans for an extension of this pipeline from Greece to Italy (IGI project). That subsea line, which will be 800 km long, will supply 8 bcm/year to Italy in 2015; this section is being developed by Depa and Edison.

Poland Energy Market Report

Discover the latest developments in the Poland Energy Market, including it's energy efficiency plans. 


In compliance with the European Directive on energy efficiency adopted in 2006 (2006/32/EC), Poland presented its National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP), which lays down a final energy savings target of at least 9% in 2016, i.e. 53.5 TWh.

The second NEEAP (late 2011) raised the energy savings target to 11% by 2016 (5.8 Mtoe or 67.2 TWh), 38% of which should be achieved through the white certificate system, 19% through existing information campaigns, 24% in the transport sector, 12% in the residential sector (mainly through the retrofitting of buildings with the Thermo-Modernization Program), 4% in industry and 3% in the public sector.

In compliance with the European Union 20-20-20 goals Poland aims to reduce energy consumption by 20% by 2020 compared with the business as usual scenario.

Energy efficiency is one of the six main objectives of the Energy Policy until 2030 adopted in 2009. It aims at reducing the country’s energy intensity to the EU-15 average and to achieve “zero-energy” economic growth by 2030, i.e. raising the GDP without increasing energy consumption.

In 2009 a draft of the Polish Energy Efficiency Law was presented, targeting reductions in energy consumption and in transmission losses. The Energy Efficiency Act was adopted in April 2011, defining the purposes of energy savings and establishing support mechanisms. The key measure is the introduction of white certificates, imposed on companies that sell electricity, gas or heat. White certificates should be obtained for energy savings with end-users (for about 80%), by generators (10%) and by electricity network operators (10%). Poland’s energy efficiency policy also relies on the European ecodesign and labeling directives for electrical appliances.

Energy efficiency in the residential and tertiary sector is also targeted. In 1999, the Thermo-Modernization Program launched financial premiums for end-use improvements in residential and tertiary buildings (20% reimbursement of the loan for efficiency projects), fuel substitutions (renewables) and energy loss reduction in heat distribution networks.

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